Agrima Bhatt, Rajasthan University
The progression of an epidemic comes at a rapid pace for us to be able to understand it. What is more devastating than this progression is the ability of a pathogen to evolve and spread. The reality of it is already heart-breaking as we can see in the current pandemic of coronavirus. With new cases still being reported, the understanding of the spread of the disease is a vital point to consider. Across the globe, people have studied this emerging virus to gather more information to stop its devastating effects. Since it has been confirmed to be a person-to-person transmissible disease, scientists and health organizations have issued different protocols to fight this virus. Norms such as social distancing, evening restrictions being employed in many states, and masking are measures that helped us in these times.
An Epidemic Case Study:
Since December of 2019, many studies have been conducted to understand the spread and transmissibility of the coronavirus. Effective reproduction number Reff is one such critical parameter to evaluate the transmissibility rate of the coronavirus that took place in this pandemic. Reff has been commonly used in this study to identify the rate of transmission from an infective person to a normal person. Thus, it can tell the number of people getting infected by one single affected person.
However, many silent transmissions can occur in such case reporting, which makes it difficult for data analysis. In this study, researchers used a stochastic model based on the Bayesian framework to confront such problems. They have tried to understand the temporal evolution of this epidemic with the value of Reff .
Estimated Decrease in Transmission Rate through Reff:
Reff in respect to time has helped us to visualize the impacts of social distancing and government-issued measures in regions like Ireland and France. Studies showed a decrease of around 80% after the first lockdown in both countries. Whereas a decrease of 40-55% was noticed in France and 20% in Ireland after the second lockdown. But since there is still a threat of the third wave in many countries, there is still a chance of a 70% reduction of cases in Ireland.
A peak in August was also noted indicating the increase in the number of testing during summer and a peak in September was explained by the increased number of hospitalizations taking place. Such data confer the evolution of this pandemic through these studies.
Prospects:
At a time where the pathogen is adapting quickly with novel conditions and developing different variants, such studies can be an important factor in gaining more knowledge about the very less known virus. This is of huge importance especially at times when people are being lenient towards vaccination and leading towards decreasing the time gap between the third wave and the public. It can be beneficial to study the impacts of lockdowns, travel restrictions, and other government policies through the calculation of Reff . With increasing leniency of the public, travel restrictions being lifted, the impending third wave is estimated to come soon. This monitoring of data then can be studied and analyzed through this platform to decrease more devastating effects on the population.
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Reference:
- Cazelles, B., Champagne, C., Nguyen-Van-Yen, B., Comiskey, C., Vergu, E., & Roche, B. (2021). A mechanistic and data-driven reconstruction of the time-varying reproduction number: Application to the COVID-19 epidemic. PLOS Computational Biology, 17(7), e1009211. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009211
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Author info:
Agrima Bhatt is an undergraduate student studying BSc. Biotechnology in Jaipur, Rajasthan. She is a science and research enthusiast who also loves to write articles and short snippets.
Some of her published articles at BioXone are:
- https://bioxone.in/news/worldnews/molecular-mechanisms-underlying-virescent-mutation-in-cotton/
- https://bioxone.in/news/worldnews/multi-angle-projection-microscope-a-novel-imaging-technique/
- https://bioxone.in/news/worldnews/scientists-develop-novel-cholera-vaccine-from-rice-grains/
- https://bioxone.in/news/worldnews/ai-predicts-the-relation-between-viruses-and-mammals/
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